Say It Ain't So Already

The “Suspense” Over Who Will Win in South Carolina is Pure Media Hype

January 16, 2012 at 6:45 PM Leave a comment

I am amazed when I listen to and read coverage of (1) the Republican presidential “debate” on Fox tonight, and (2) news about next Saturday’s primary in South Carolina.  This is typical of what’s out there:

If it lives up to the tradition of South Carolina’s down-and-dirty Republican primaries, Monday night’s presidential debate in Myrtle Beach will be a raucous affair.

After all, the Fox News faceoff has all the elements needed for a slugfest. The candidates are tired by this point, and tired of each other. For Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Rick Perry, South Carolina could be their last stand. They’ve been sharpening their lines of attack against Mitt Romney and now have a chance to deliver them before a national audience.

But they may muzzle themselves, as they did at that ABC debate the Saturday night before the New Hampshire primary. Each of the candidates held back, seemingly waiting for someone else to go first. The result was a flat debate in which Romney emerged largely unscathed. (Perhaps realizing they had whiffed, Romney’s rivals were a bit more aggressive at the next morning’s Meet the Press debate.)

The calculation they must make is this: Voters are often turned off when candidates appear too negative. It’s one thing to let your Super PAC carpet-bomb your opponent; it’s another thing to tackle him with your own bare hands. The danger is that the candidate seems like a hatchet man and obscures his positive message.

But if the also-rans don’t bloody Romney on Monday night—or at the CNN debate in Charleston on Thursday—he’ll likely roll to his third straight victory in the Jan. 21 primary.

So, “For Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Rick Perry, South Carolina could be their last stand?” How so?  The only Republican candidates on the ballot there are Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.

Yes, Gingrich, Santorum and Perry have their legacy to defend but there is virtually no contest in that state anymore what with the ballot limited to Romney and Paul and ah, gosh, I don’t think there’s any question whose going to win.

So again, this hype about a horse race in South Carolina is just bullshit.

And why are pollsters including the others in their polling?  They aren’t on the dang ballot so what does it matter?

• Romney: 32 percent
  
• Gingrich: 21 percent
• Paul: 14 percent
• Santorum: 13 percent
• Huntsman: 6 percent
• Perry: 5 percent
• Other: 2 percent
• Undecided/ No opinion: 7 percent

It’s as if the whole American media empire is gaming us — for ratings.

Beware folks.

Entry filed under: 2012 Election, Media - General, Republicans, Including Wingers & "Moderates". Tags: .